Standards – From Economics to Geopolitics
For decades, technical standards, and Standards Development Organisations (SDO’s), have on immediate appearance at least, been both objectively apolitical, and commercially neutral; quietly, and largely unseen by the general public, creating the frameworks that have ensured the interoperability & safety of products, fostered innovation, facilitated international trade, and helped drive the engine of globalisation.
Historically, the standard's setting landscape was dominated by western powers – the USA, and Europe, with the EU especially having considerable global impact via the export of regulatory policy and technical standards beyond its borders, through the ‘Brussels Effect.’
In more recent years, there has been a tilt, from standards as tools for trade, towards sources of state soft-power, and projection of geopolitical ambition. With the global economic balances of power shifting, so too is legacy western dominance in standardisation being challenged, as nations – notably China, seek to influence & shape the global rule book and establish first mover advantage for a range of frontier technologies including 6G, and A.I.
In this article we look at China's ascendancy on the path to being a global standards powerhouse, Europe’s strategic pivot, India’s unique positioning as democratic counterweight to China – and what signals it sends regarding the potential future of regulatory compliance.
China – Rise of a Global Standards Power
Within the space of generation, China has undergone a transformative change in its relationship with technical standards; from a protectionist approach with deliberately divergent domestic standards at the turn of the millennium, through standards follower, to playing a decisive role in shaping 5G and future 6G standards.
Through successive 5-year plans that have carefully aligned national ambition and industrial strategy, China has strategically moved its industrial base up the value chain, first with ‘Made in China 2025’ and, latterly with the China Standards 2035 (CS2035) plan and Digital Silk Road (DSR) project – tightly coupled initiatives to ensure China’s position as an innovator in emerging technology and increase in its global influence.
One key area where China’s rise to prominence in technical standards setting is highly evident, has been its representation in international standards organisations and technical committees. From a position of underrepresentation 20 years ago, China’s footprint, influence, and share of leadership positions has now increased tremendously, especially within the ITU, ISO, IEC, and 3GPP.
In the ITU-T specifically, China’s impact has been particularly marked; with China holding 25 chair, and vice-chair, and 89 rapporteur positions in 2021, marking a governance inversion vs US leadership position in the earlier 2000’s. Similarly, with the 3GPP, Chinese representatives now hold nearly 25% of chair and vice chair positions.
Arguably, nowhere has Chinese aspiration, and intent to shape technical standards been so fully demonstrated as through 5G, where Chinese companies have been the largest contributors in the volume of technical submissions to SDO’s.
In many respects, at least initially, China’s inclusion in the international fold, and participation into SDO’s has been viewed as collaborative, and constructive.
However, over time, observers and industry experts have noted a range of practices that may influence the dynamics of standards development activities in ways that favour China. These include state sponsored financial incentive schemes to participate in international standards activities – often rewarding the volume of contributions & activity, and patterns of Chinese representatives appearing to act in concert at SDO’s. The latter of which has been interpreted by some analysis to represent ‘patriotic voting’ to advance the national strategic objectives.
Beyond the corridors of standards creation, the real influence of China’s ambition to internationalise standards diplomacy is evident through BRI and DSR projects, which serve as conduit for the dissemination of Chinese technical standards, bundled with infrastructure and connectivity projects throughout the Global South. As with representation at SDO’s, 90+ standards recognition agreements in over 50 BRI countries – the figures underpin the commitment.
The export of Chinese hardware and standards to BRI countries creates the potential for dependency and ‘lock-in’ to Chinese vendors on one hand, but also serves to strengthen China’s case in SDO’s, and standards setting activities on the other, with the extensive adoption of Chinese standards being projected as an indicator of their quality, and utility.
It is important to note at this point; despite the current attention being directed towards China, and concerns from some experts and political leaders, it would be entirely wrong to characterise China’s standards strategy as nefarious, or a state orchestrated ‘takeover.’ To the contrary, China’s contribution to international standards, and bilateral exchange of knowledge has received public praise from SDO leaders such as ISO, and international development organisations are quick to correlate China’s standards activities with the opening-up of Chinese industry & innovation for the benefit of global trade, and global society.
Europe & ETSI – A New Strategy for A New Era
Through globally relevant, highly successful, landmark standardisation projects & initiatives from GSM in the 1990’s to the USB-C Common Charger requirement in 2024, Europe and ETSI in particular have long enjoyed an influential and decisive role in shaping global trade through the creation, and global diffusion of standards, and technical diplomacy.
However, the era of Europe ‘calling the shots,’ now faces a myriad of challenges; sandwiched between a technical supremacy rivalry between the USA, and an increasingly assertive China, and riven with internal fragmentation within the EU itself. Events of recent years have shaken the core foundation of Europe’s apolitical, consensus driven, bottom-up approach to standardisation.
Concerns ranging from governance imbalances in EU standards bodies, an increasingly competitive global environment, and the lack of recognition tied to the strategic importance of standards, triggered the EU to formulate a new EU Standardisation Strategy in 2022, with the aim of ensuring Europe remains at the forefront of global standards in emerging technology, and arresting any further erosion of its legacy standards' power.
India – A Democratic Counterweight and Anchor for the Global South
As the world’s largest democratic nation and rapidly rising global technology power, India occupies a unique position to influence the global standards order for frontier technologies, especially amongst countries in the Global South, with its democratic approach to technology governance offering an alternative to China, and other autocracies.
With a tech workforce providing a huge foundational talent pool for global operations, demonstrable domestic regulatory reform policies (BIS & TEC), and a clear strategic policy objective to shape global standards for technologies such as 6G, through the Bharat 6G vision, and National Standardisation Strategy, India has the ambition and institutional capacity to have a significant role in the future of technical standards.
With the European Union facing its own challenges curtailing its ability to project standards diplomacy abroad, and other singular middle-powers with shared values (UK, Japan, Australia, Canada) lacking the resources and scale to shape global trade in isolation, India represents the only other alternative leader bar the United States with the capacity to lead a new global coalition of democratically endorsed technical governance.
Horizon Scan – Summary, Trends, & Future Compliance Implications
Politicisation of Regulatory Compliance – technical standards represent just one point of contention in the global power-play to dictate the terms and playing field for High Technology. With major power brokers now firmly re-posturing themselves to view standards as tools of statecraft, there will be clear implications for parameters related to security, and data privacy with future connected & digital technologies.
Re-Globalisation and a Multipolar World – the future digital landscape will not be defined by a single power. Although in terms of standards, China, the USA, India, and EU currently wield the most leverage, other nations, especially in Asia are also building capacity, and pursuing South-South cooperation models to ensure they have a stake in global technology governance.
Regulatory Compliance – for compliance professionals, and manufacturers, the new multi-polar, strategic nature of technical standards has the potential to pose some interesting challenges.
More immediately - at an initial level, international standards diplomacy is often preceded by national activism – tightening of compliance schemes. What has been observed in China, and India previously could be repeated in other nations – especially mid-powers in Asia, and Latin America as they seek greater influence in global standards setting.
In future, technology leaders, may increasingly confront the question of what ‘values,’ are embedded in the technical standards their products must conform to. As standards move beyond facilitators of trade, and increasingly reflect expressions of national strategy, and political ideology, companies may have to navigate requirements that do not necessarily reflect their national, corporate, or individual democratic values.